Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Josh BellBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Endy RodriguezBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chisholm Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Gurriel scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 8Burger singled to left, Soler scored, Gurriel to third.3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 8Bell doubled to right, Hampson scored and Fortes scored, Soler to third.2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Rodríguez scored, Reynolds safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Hampson, Joe to second, Peguero to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 4Rodríguez singled to center, Triolo scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Hayes grounded out to third, Rodríguez scored, Joe to second, Peguero to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 46%
- Fair odds
- PIT -102
- MIA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −18 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +31 Elo | MIA 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 18th of 3036–42 | Road vs home | 38–4019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 3–1 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.