Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jon BertiBatting3-4
- Braxton GarrettPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey LucchesiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nimmo doubled to right, Locastro scored and Baty scored.2–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–9
- 7McNeil reached on infield single to pitcher, Alonso scored, Vientos to second, Lindor to third.2–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Lindor singled to center, Mauricio scored and Nimmo scored, Alonso to second.2–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 7Soler hit sacrifice fly, Fortes scored, Soler to first on fielding error by right fielder McNeil.2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Fortes doubled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 6Vientos homered to center (424 feet), Alonso scored.0–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Lindor homered to left center (384 feet), Alonso scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Alonso homered to left (416 feet), Nimmo scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 51%
- Fair odds
- NYM -103
- MIA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.9 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Joey Lucchesi: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +7 Elo | NYM 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 18th of 3035–40 | Road vs home | 39–3616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 3–7 NYM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.