New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bohm singled to right, Turner scored, Harper to second.4–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 9Baty homered to center (432 feet).4–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 8Lindor homered to left center (382 feet).3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Schwarber singled to left, Rojas scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Realmuto homered to left center (399 feet), Harper scored and Bohm scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Nimmo singled to right, Ortega scored, Narváez to second.2–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Alonso doubled to right, Nimmo scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Fair odds
- PHI -123
- NYM +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.7 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −8 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +42 Elo | PHI 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 26th of 3032–46 | Road vs home | 44–317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 4–3 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.