New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Castellanos homered to left center (454 feet).4–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Vientos homered to left center (381 feet).4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to center, McNeil scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 3Castellanos hit sacrifice fly to right, Harper scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 3Bohm homered to left center (404 feet).2–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Baty singled to right, McNeil scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2McNeil doubled to left, Lindor scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Castellanos singled to center, Schwarber scored and Turner scored, Harper to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Fair odds
- PHI -126
- NYM +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.6 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +7 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +72 Elo | PHI 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 26th of 3032–45 | Road vs home | 43–317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 4–2 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.