New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 10 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Realmuto singled to center, Bohm scored.5–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 7Lindor hit sacrifice fly to left, Nimmo scored.5–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 7Nimmo tripled to center, Baty scored and Vientos scored.4–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 5Harper singled to right, Schwarber scored and Turner scored.2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Turner grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Rojas scored, Schwarber third.2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Bohm homered to left center (360 feet).2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Castellanos tripled to center, Realmuto scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Harper homered to right center (451 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Baty grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Stewart scored on error and Mauricio scored on error.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Fair odds
- PHI -126
- NYM +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.6 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +61 Elo | PHI 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 26th of 3032–47 | Road vs home | 45–317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 4–4 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.