Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-2
- Jesus LuzardoPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Mets- Rafael OrtegaBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ortega singled to left, Baty scored, Ortega to second.0–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 51%
- Fair odds
- NYM -103
- MIA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 3.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −14 | MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +4 Elo | NYM 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 18th of 3036–41 | Road vs home | 40–3716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 4–8 NYM in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.