Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jon BertiBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Johnny CuetoPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9De La Cruz singled to left, Berti scored, Gurriel to second, Bell to third.4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 9Gurriel grounded into fielder's choice to third, Edwards scored on fielding error by third baseman Baty, Bell to second, Berti to third.3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Lindor homered to right center (398 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Sánchez homered to right center (382 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Lindor homered to right center (394 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Berti homered to center (406 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 57%
- Fair odds
- NYM -108
- MIA +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.9 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +15 | MIA: Johnny Cueto: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +48 Elo | NYM 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 18th of 3035–41 | Road vs home | 40–3616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 3–8 NYM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.