Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Henry DavisBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Rojas singled to center, Pache scored.2–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Davis homered to left (379 feet).2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 7Reynolds homered to center (431 feet).1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 6Harper hit sacrifice fly to center, Schwarber scored, Turner to third.0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 6Marsh homered to center (412 feet).0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Fair odds
- PHI -127
- PIT +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.5 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −3 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +72 Elo | PHI 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 19th of 3036–42 | Road vs home | 47–316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.