Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Harper homered to center (427 feet).6–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 5Pache singled to left, Harper scored.6–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 5Sosa homered to left (362 feet).6–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 5Suwinski tripled to right, Joe scored.6–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 4Stubbs homered to right (354 feet), Cave scored and Rojas scored.5–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 4Castro grounded out to first, Marsh scored, Rojas to second, Cave to third.5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 3Davis singled to center, Hayes scored and Joe scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Davis grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Hayes scored, Joe out at second.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Joe singled to left, Reynolds scored, Hayes to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Hayes singled to right, Triolo scored, Reynolds to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Fair odds
- PHI -129
- PIT +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.4 – 5.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +86 Elo | PHI 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 19th of 3036–43 | Road vs home | 48–316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 2–2 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.