Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting1-4
- Ryan WeathersPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Andre JacksonPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suwinski doubled to left, Palacios scored and Triolo scored.0–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 8Andujar doubled to left, Joe scored, Triolo to third.0–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Fair odds
- PIT -103
- MIA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +2 | MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Andre Jackson: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +1 Elo | MIA 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 3038–42 | Road vs home | 38–4221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 5–1 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.