Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George SorianoPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Endy RodriguezBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9De La Cruz singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.7–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 8Reynolds singled to right, Gonzales scored, Triolo to second.6–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 16–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 8Bell doubled to center, Berti scored and Soler scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Bell hit sacrifice fly to right, Hampson scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 6Soler grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Berti scored, Hampson third.3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Rodríguez singled to center, Hayes scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (380 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Gonzales sacrificed, Rodríguez scored, Gonzales to first on throwing error by pitcher Soriano, Gonzales to second, Bae to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Soler scored, Bell to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −7 | MIA: JT Chargois: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PIT: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +5 Elo | PIT 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 17th of 3037–42 | Road vs home | 38–4121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 4–1 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.