Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Josh BellBatting3-4
- Jesus LuzardoPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Castellanos doubled to left, Harper scored, Castellanos to third.1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 7De La Cruz reached on infield single to third, Bell scored, Burger to second.1–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 4Pache singled to center, Stott scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Stott singled to center, Realmuto scored, Stott to second, Castellanos thrown out at home.0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Bohm doubled to left, Rojas scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Fair odds
- PHI -120
- MIA +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +8 | MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +61 Elo | PHI 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 3038–43 | Road vs home | 49–325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 7–6 PHI in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.