Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nick NelsonPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Mets- Tim LocastroBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose ButtoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marsh homered to center (402 feet), Pache scored and Stott scored.9–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 9Bohm hit sacrifice fly to left, Stubbs scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 9Stubbs singled to center, Rojas scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 14–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 9Rojas tripled to center, Cave scored.4–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 8Marsh singled to right, Wilson scored, Stott to third.3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Bohm homered to right (358 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Locastro homered to left center (419 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Stott singled to center, Stubbs scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 51%
- Fair odds
- NYM -100
- PHI +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +8 | PHI: Matt Strahm: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Butto: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +6 Elo | NYM 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 10th of 3040–39 | Road vs home | 43–3713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 6–6 NYM in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.