Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael PlassmeyerPitching3.2 IP, 9 ER, 4 K
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-3, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Locastro singled to left, Alvarez scored, Stewart to third.4–11
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–11
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–10
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–10
- 4Lindor homered to left (361 feet), Mauricio scored.4–10
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–10
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–8
- 4Schwarber homered to right (389 feet), Rojas scored and Pache scored.4–8
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–8
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 4Pache singled to left, Stubbs scored, Rojas to third.1–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–8
- 3Alvarez homered to left (411 feet), Mauricio scored, Alonso scored and Lindor scored.0–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–8
- 3Mauricio doubled to left, Ortega scored on throwing error by left fielder Pache.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Alvarez homered to left (412 feet), Baty scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Baty singled to right, Lindor scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Fair odds
- PHI -103
- NYM +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.1 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −4 | PHI: Michael Plassmeyer (no track record yet) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +19 Elo | PHI 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 10th of 3040–38 | Road vs home | 42–3715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 6–5 NYM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.