Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Weston WilsonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Mets- Omar NarvaezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wilson singled to center, Marsh scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 9Marsh hit a ground rule double, Realmuto scored.2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Sosa singled to left, Wilson scored, Sosa to second, Cave to third.1–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 2Narváez homered to right (349 feet).0–4
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Lindor scored on Walker wild pitch, Baty to second on wild pitch by Walker.0–3
- 1Lindor scored on Walker wild pitch, Baty to second on wild pitch by Walker.0–3
- 1Baty singled to right, Mauricio scored, Lindor to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Alonso grounded out to third, Ortega scored, Mauricio to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Fair odds
- PHI -103
- NYM +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.1 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +1 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +16 Elo | PHI 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 10th of 3040–37 | Road vs home | 41–3716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 6–4 NYM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.