Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bryan HoeingPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bethancourt grounded out to pitcher, Anderson scored, García to third.7–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 37–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 8Hayes hit sacrifice fly to right, Joe scored.7–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 7Cruz singled to left, Hayes scored, Cruz to second, Davis to third.6–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 36–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 6Joe doubled to right, Taylor scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Burger singled to left, Arraez scored, Bell to second.4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Olivares singled to center, Hayes scored, McCutchen to second.4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Hayes doubled to left, Reynolds scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Taylor sacrificed into double play, left to third, Davis scored, Triolo to second, Cruz thrown out at third.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 56%
- ML PIT +120 / MIA -140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 53.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -128
- PIT +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −2 | PIT: Martin Perez: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: A.J. Puk (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +26 Elo | MIA 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 20th of 3037–44 | Road vs home | 46–359th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 3–5 MIA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.