Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Rowdy TellezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Taylor walked, Williams scored, Hayes to second, Delay to third.9–7
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball 49–7
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 38–7
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking8–7
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 28–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 18–7
- 10Delay sacrificed, Cruz scored, Williams to second.8–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–7
- 9Gordon homered to right center (407 feet).7–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–7
- 7Tellez homered to center (425 feet), Hayes scored and Olivares scored.7–6
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play7–6
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 4García homered to center (421 feet).4–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 4Hayes singled to center, Joe scored, Hayes to second, Reynolds to third.4–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 2Reynolds reached on infield single to third, Williams scored, Joe to second, Delay to third.3–5
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball In Play3–5
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 2Williams tripled to left, Suwinski scored and Triolo scored.2–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 57%
- ML PIT +125 / MIA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- MIA: Elo 56.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -135
- PIT +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.9 – 4.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +13 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +47 Elo | MIA 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 307.3 | Runs scored | 3.322nd of 30 |
| 8th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 7.324th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.0 | Margin | −4.025th of 30 |
| 1st of 153–0 | Road vs home | 0–310th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 5–5 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.