Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Marco GonzalesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Riley AdamsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Abrams singled to left, Lipscomb scored, Vargas to second.8–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–3
- 9Reynolds doubled to right, Taylor scored and Williams scored, Tellez to third.8–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 8McCutchen singled to left, Hayes scored.6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8Hayes doubled to center, Joe scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 8Joe doubled to left, Taylor scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Adams homered to left center (427 feet), Vargas scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Joe reached on infield single to third, Davis scored, Williams to second.3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 3Thomas singled to right, Robles scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Reynolds grounded out to third, Cruz scored, Joe to second, Williams to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Taylor hit sacrifice fly to left, Davis scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 50%
- ML PIT -110 / WSH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 48.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -100
- PIT -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −4 | PIT: Marco Gonzales: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +13 Elo | PIT 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| PIT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 307.8 | Runs scored | 4.714th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 6.723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+3.5 | Margin | −2.021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 5–2 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.