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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast

Final

Away

Braves

2-1

4–5

at

Home

Phillies

1-2

ATL 57%PHI 43%

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Citizens Bank Park

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.

PHI75%50%75%ATLStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Braves
  • Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Chris SalePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Phillies
  • Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Ranger SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Albies singled to right, Kelenic scored.4–5
  • 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
  • 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
  • 7Bohm singled to left, Schwarber scored and Turner scored.3–5
  • 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
  • 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
  • 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
  • 7Pitch 3 : Ball 33–3
  • 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
  • 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
  • 7Turner singled to right, Rojas scored, Schwarber to third.3–3
  • 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
  • 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
  • 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
  • 5Schwarber grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Sosa scored, Rojas out at second, Pache to third.3–2
  • 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
  • 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
  • 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
  • 4Duvall singled to left, Riley scored, Duvall out stretching at second.3–1
  • 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
  • 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
  • 4Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
  • 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
  • 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
  • 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
  • 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
  • 1Schwarber homered to right (382 feet).2–1
  • 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
  • 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
  • 1Albies homered to left (365 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.2–0
  • 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
  • 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Braves 57%

LeanMiss
ATL 57%PHI 43%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
ATL 57%
ML ATL -150 / PHI +125
Pre-line forecast
ATL 51%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
ATL 48%
Ratings vs. market
−9.1 pts
ATL: Elo 48.4%, market 57.4%
Fair odds
ATL -135
PHI +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
ATL 4.3 – 3.7 PHI
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorATLPHIWhy
Team rating15491527Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−8+6ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsPHI +11 EloPHI 51.6%
Market-implied ratingsATL 51.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastATL 51.1%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastATL 57.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies compared, with each team's league rank
ATLStatPHI
1st of 305.8Runs scored4.98th of 30
13th of 304.4Runs allowed4.412th of 30
1st of 30+1.4Margin+0.512th of 30
2nd of 307–3Last 107–32nd of 30
1st of 3052–29Road vs home49–325th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BravesPhillies
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

ATL 11–8 PHI in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.