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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast

FinalFS1

Away

Braves

2-0

12–4

at

Home

Phillies

0-2

ATL 55%PHI 45%

You didn't pick this one.

Citizens Bank Park · FS1

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.

PHI75%50%75%ATLStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Braves
  • Ozzie AlbiesBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Jesse ChavezPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Phillies
  • J.T. RealmutoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Aaron NolaPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Harris II homered to right center (374 feet).12–4
  • 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–4
  • 6Ozuna homered to left center (377 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Albies scored.11–4
  • 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–4
  • 6Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
  • 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–4
  • 6Albies singled to right, Kelenic scored, Acuña Jr. to third.8–4
  • 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play8–4
  • 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
  • 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
  • 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
  • 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
  • 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
  • 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–4
  • 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
  • 3Realmuto homered to left center (398 feet).7–4
  • 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–4
  • 3Pitch 4 : Ball 37–3
  • 3Pitch 3 : Ball 27–3
  • 3Pitch 2 : Ball 17–3
  • 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
  • 3Kelenic singled to right, Harris II scored, Arcia to third.7–3
  • 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
  • 3Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
  • 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
  • 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
  • 3Olson homered to right (337 feet).6–3
  • 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
  • 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
  • 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
  • 2Kelenic singled to center, d'Arnaud scored.5–3
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
  • 2d'Arnaud doubled to right, Arcia scored and Harris II scored.4–3
  • 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
  • 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
  • 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
  • 1Stott singled to left, Harper scored and Realmuto scored, Castellanos to second.2–3
  • 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
  • 1Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
  • 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Braves 55%

LeanHit
ATL 55%PHI 45%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
ATL 55%
ML ATL -135 / PHI +115
Pre-line forecast
ATL 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
ATL 50%
Ratings vs. market
−5.3 pts
ATL: Elo 50.0%, market 55.3%
Fair odds
ATL -124
PHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
ATL 4.2 – 3.8 PHI
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorATLPHIWhy
Team rating15451531Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+6+3ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsATL 0 EloATL 50.0%
Market-implied ratingsATL 50.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastATL 50.3%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastATL 55.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies compared, with each team's league rank
ATLStatPHI
1st of 305.8Runs scored4.98th of 30
13th of 304.4Runs allowed4.412th of 30
1st of 30+1.4Margin+0.512th of 30
2nd of 307–3Last 107–32nd of 30
1st of 3052–29Road vs home49–325th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BravesPhillies
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

ATL 10–8 PHI in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.