Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Tommy PhamBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Marte singled to center, Perdomo scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Marte tripled to right, Carroll scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Marsh singled to right, Realmuto scored, Marsh to second.3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Longoria doubled to left, Thomas scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (403 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pham homered to left (406 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Fair odds
- PHI -121
- ARI +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.1 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +7 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +69 Elo | PHI 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 49–325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 5–7 PHI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.
- Oct 21PHI 6 @ ARI 1PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Miss
- Oct 20PHI 5 @ ARI 6PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Hit
- Oct 19PHI 1 @ ARI 2PlayoffsPicked ARI 50%Hit
- Oct 17ARI 0 @ PHI 10PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Hit
- Oct 16ARI 3 @ PHI 5PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Hit
- Jun 15PHI 5 @ ARI 4Picked ARI 54%Miss
- Jun 14PHI 4 @ ARI 3Picked ARI 55%Miss
- Jun 13PHI 15 @ ARI 3Picked ARI 55%Miss