Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Thomas hit sacrifice fly to right, Walker scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 6Perdomo homered to right (345 feet), Longoria scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Realmuto singled to left, Harper scored, Realmuto to second.0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Harper singled to right, Turner scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Castellanos homered to right (362 feet).0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Harper homered to right center (420 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Schwarber homered to right (420 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Fair odds
- PHI -118
- ARI +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.1 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +5 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +45 Elo | PHI 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 49–325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 3–4 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.