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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast

FinalPHI leads series 2-1

Away

Braves

104-58

2–10

at

Home

Phillies

90-72

ATL 49%PHI 51%

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Citizens Bank Park · TBS

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.

PHI75%50%75%ATLStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Braves
  • Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 1 RBI
  • Bryce ElderPitching2.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Phillies
  • Bryce HarperBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
  • Aaron NolaPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Marsh homered to left (362 feet).2–10
  • 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–10
  • 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–9
  • 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–9
  • 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–9
  • 8Castellanos homered to left center (449 feet).2–9
  • 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–9
  • 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
  • 6Turner homered to left center (379 feet).2–8
  • 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–8
  • 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
  • 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–7
  • 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
  • 6Arcia singled to center, Ozuna scored, Pillar to second.2–7
  • 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
  • 5Harper homered to center (414 feet).1–7
  • 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
  • 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
  • 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
  • 3Realmuto doubled to left, Stott scored and Bohm scored.1–6
  • 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
  • 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
  • 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
  • 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
  • 3Harper homered to right (408 feet), Marsh scored and Turner scored.1–4
  • 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
  • 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
  • 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
  • 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
  • 3Castellanos homered to left (373 feet).1–1
  • 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
  • 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
  • 3Albies singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.1–0
  • 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Phillies 51%

Toss-upHit
ATL 49%PHI 51%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
PHI 51%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHI 51%
Fair odds
PHI -102
ATL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
ATL 4.8 – 4.8 PHI
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorATLPHIWhy
Team rating15611540Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−6+3ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsPHI +6 EloPHI 50.9%
Market-implied ratingsPHI 50.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHI 50.5%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies compared, with each team's league rank
ATLStatPHI
1st of 305.8Runs scored4.98th of 30
13th of 304.4Runs allowed4.412th of 30
1st of 30+1.4Margin+0.512th of 30
2nd of 307–3Last 107–32nd of 30
1st of 3052–29Road vs home49–325th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BravesPhillies
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

ATL 9–6 PHI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.