Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting1-4
- Spencer StriderPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Realmuto reached first base on catcher's interference, Turner to home, Stott to second, Harper to third.3–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 6Harper homered to right (375 feet).2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Stott singled to left, Harper scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Fair odds
- ATL -122
- PHI +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.1 – 5.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +6 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +43 Elo | ATL 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.41st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3041–39 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 5–8 ATL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.