Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Riley homered to left (376 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 34–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 7d'Arnaud homered to left (414 feet), Olson scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Albies singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored on fielding error by shortstop Turner.4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Stott hit sacrifice fly to center, Castellanos scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Realmuto homered to right center (411 feet), Harper scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Bohm singled to center, Turner scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Fair odds
- ATL -120
- PHI +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.0 – 5.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +8 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +36 Elo | ATL 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.41st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3041–39 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 6–8 ATL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.
- Oct 7PHI 3 @ ATL 0PlayoffsPicked ATL 55%Miss
- Sep 20PHI 6 @ ATL 5Picked ATL 55%Miss
- Sep 19PHI 3 @ ATL 9Picked ATL 55%Hit
- Sep 18PHI 7 @ ATL 1Picked ATL 55%Miss
- Sep 13ATL 4 @ PHI 1Picked ATL 51%Hit
- Sep 12ATL 7 @ PHI 6Picked ATL 51%Hit
- Sep 11ATL 5 @ PHI 7Picked ATL 51%Miss
- Sep 11ATL 10 @ PHI 8Picked ATL 51%Hit