Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting3-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Castellanos homered to left (415 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 5Turner homered to left (403 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Castellanos homered to left (404 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Riley homered to left (346 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Fair odds
- PHI -103
- ATL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.8 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +8 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +5 Elo | PHI 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3052–29 | Road vs home | 49–325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 9–7 PHI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.
- Oct 11ATL 2 @ PHI 10PlayoffsPicked PHI 51%Hit
- Oct 9PHI 4 @ ATL 5PlayoffsPicked ATL 55%Hit
- Oct 7PHI 3 @ ATL 0PlayoffsPicked ATL 55%Miss
- Sep 20PHI 6 @ ATL 5Picked ATL 55%Miss
- Sep 19PHI 3 @ ATL 9Picked ATL 55%Hit
- Sep 18PHI 7 @ ATL 1Picked ATL 55%Miss
- Sep 13ATL 4 @ PHI 1Picked ATL 51%Hit
- Sep 12ATL 7 @ PHI 6Picked ATL 51%Hit