Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching2.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Alek ThomasBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan ThompsonPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Moreno singled to center, Marte scored, Carroll to third.5–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 35–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 8Thomas homered to right center (412 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.5–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 35–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 7Walker walked, Perdomo scored, Moreno to second, Carroll to third.5–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 45–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 35–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7Turner hit sacrifice fly to left, Rojas scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Bohm reached on infield single to third, Schwarber scored. Turner scored on throwing error by third baseman Rivera, Bohm out stretching at second, Harper safe at third.4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Marsh doubled to center, Realmuto scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Schwarber homered to right center (409 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Moreno singled to right, Marte scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 47%
- Fair odds
- ARI -102
- PHI +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 3.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −7 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Joe Mantiply: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +21 Elo | PHI 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 10th of 3041–39 | Road vs home | 43–3814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 6–4 ARI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
- Oct 19PHI 1 @ ARI 2PlayoffsPicked ARI 50%Hit
- Oct 17ARI 0 @ PHI 10PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Hit
- Oct 16ARI 3 @ PHI 5PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Hit
- Jun 15PHI 5 @ ARI 4Picked ARI 54%Miss
- Jun 14PHI 4 @ ARI 3Picked ARI 55%Miss
- Jun 13PHI 15 @ ARI 3Picked ARI 55%Miss
- Jun 12PHI 8 @ ARI 9Picked ARI 55%Hit
- May 24ARI 5 @ PHI 6Picked PHI 50%Hit