Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4
- Merrill KellyPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Castellanos hit sacrifice fly to left, Stott scored.0–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 7Realmuto singled to left, Bohm scored, Stott to third.0–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 7Bohm doubled to left center, Harper and Schwarber scored.0–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 6Marsh doubled to left, Realmuto scored, Castellanos to third.0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Realmuto doubled to left center, Stott and Turner scored.0–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 6Schwarber homered to right center (427 feet).0–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Schwarber homered to right center (368 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Turner homered to left center (421 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.1 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +4 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +49 Elo | PHI 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 49–325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 3–5 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Oct 16ARI 3 @ PHI 5PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Hit
- Jun 15PHI 5 @ ARI 4Picked ARI 54%Miss
- Jun 14PHI 4 @ ARI 3Picked ARI 55%Miss
- Jun 13PHI 15 @ ARI 3Picked ARI 55%Miss
- Jun 12PHI 8 @ ARI 9Picked ARI 55%Hit
- May 24ARI 5 @ PHI 6Picked PHI 50%Hit
- May 23ARI 4 @ PHI 3Picked PHI 51%Miss
- May 22ARI 6 @ PHI 3Picked PHI 52%Miss