Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Diamondbacks- Alek ThomasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Realmuto homered to left (382 feet), Harper scored.6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 7Thomas homered to right center (399 feet).4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Harper homered to right center (444 feet).4–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 6Schwarber homered to right center (461 feet).3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Harper stole home, Stott stole second, Stott safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Marte.2–0
- 1Harper stole home, Stott stole second, Stott safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Marte.2–0
- 1Stott singled to right, Schwarber scored, Harper to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 48%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 4.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +16 Elo | PHI 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 10th of 3041–39 | Road vs home | 43–3814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 6–5 ARI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
- Oct 20PHI 5 @ ARI 6PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Hit
- Oct 19PHI 1 @ ARI 2PlayoffsPicked ARI 50%Hit
- Oct 17ARI 0 @ PHI 10PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Hit
- Oct 16ARI 3 @ PHI 5PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Hit
- Jun 15PHI 5 @ ARI 4Picked ARI 54%Miss
- Jun 14PHI 4 @ ARI 3Picked ARI 55%Miss
- Jun 13PHI 15 @ ARI 3Picked ARI 55%Miss
- Jun 12PHI 8 @ ARI 9Picked ARI 55%Hit