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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast

FinalMakeup from March 28

Away

Braves

1-0

9–3

at

Home

Phillies

0-1

ATL 55%PHI 45%

You didn't pick this one.

Citizens Bank Park

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.

PHI75%50%75%ATLStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Braves
  • Matt OlsonBatting3-5, 3 RBI
  • Spencer StriderPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Phillies
  • Brandon MarshBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Castellanos singled to left, Bohm scored.9–3
  • 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
  • 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–2
  • 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–2
  • 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
  • 8Olson doubled to right, Acuña Jr. scored, Riley scored and Albies scored.9–2
  • 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–2
  • 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
  • 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
  • 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
  • 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
  • 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
  • 8Riley walked, Duvall scored, Albies to second, Acuña Jr. to third.6–2
  • 8Pitch 6 : Ball 46–2
  • 8Pitch 5 : Ball 35–2
  • 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
  • 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
  • 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
  • 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
  • 8d'Arnaud scored on Brogdon wild pitch, Acuña Jr. to second on wild pitch by Brogdon, Duvall to third on wild pitch by Brogdon.5–2
  • 8d'Arnaud scored on Brogdon wild pitch, Acuña Jr. to second on wild pitch by Brogdon, Duvall to third on wild pitch by Brogdon.5–2
  • 8Acuña Jr. singled to left, Harris II scored, Duvall to second, d'Arnaud to third.4–2
  • 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
  • 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
  • 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
  • 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
  • 8Harris II singled to center, Olson scored.3–2
  • 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
  • 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
  • 7Duvall doubled to left, Arcia scored and Harris II scored.2–2
  • 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
  • 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
  • 5Marsh homered to left center (396 feet), Stott scored.0–2
  • 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
  • 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
  • 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
  • 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
  • 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Braves 55%

LeanHit
ATL 55%PHI 45%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
ATL 55%
ML ATL -135 / PHI +115
Pre-line forecast
ATL 49%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
ATL 49%
Ratings vs. market
−6.5 pts
ATL: Elo 48.7%, market 55.3%
Fair odds
ATL -124
PHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
ATL 3.7 – 3.3 PHI
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorATLPHIWhy
Team rating15421534Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+6+6ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsPHI +9 EloPHI 51.3%
Market-implied ratingsPHI 51.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHI 51.2%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastATL 55.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies compared, with each team's league rank
ATLStatPHI
1st of 305.8Runs scored4.98th of 30
13th of 304.4Runs allowed4.412th of 30
1st of 30+1.4Margin+0.512th of 30
2nd of 307–3Last 107–32nd of 30
1st of 3052–29Road vs home49–325th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BravesPhillies
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

ATL 9–8 PHI in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.