Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-4, 3 HR, 6 RBI
- Spencer TurnbullPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Martini hit sacrifice fly to center, De La Cruz scored.4–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–9
- 9Steer reached on infield single to pitcher, Fraley scored, De La Cruz to third.3–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–9
- 8Marsh homered to left (356 feet).2–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–9
- 8Stephenson scored on error, India safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Bohm, India safe at second on error.2–8
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 7Harper homered to right center (422 feet), Rojas scored, Schwarber scored and Turner scored.1–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 7Schwarber singled to right, Marsh scored, Rojas to third.1–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 6Turner scored on error, Stott safe at first on throwing error by shortstop De La Cruz.1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Harper homered to right (367 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Benson doubled to right, Stephenson scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 56%
- ML CIN +120 / PHI -140
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -128
- CIN +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.7 – 4.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −5 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Spencer Turnbull: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +42 Elo | PHI 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 306.5 | Runs scored | 3.824th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 7.830th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −4.028th of 30 |
| 1st of 181–0 | Road vs home | 1–312th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 4–4 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.