Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Turner reached on infield single to pitcher, Stott scored, Rojas to third.6–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 26–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 16–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 10Steer homered to left center (383 feet), Thompson scored, Benson scored and India scored.6–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Candelario singled to right, Steer scored, Encarnacion-Strand to second.2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Encarnacion-Strand singled to center, India scored, Steer to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Bohm doubled to right, Schwarber scored and Turner scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML CIN +125 / PHI -150
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -135
- CIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.7 – 4.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −12 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +33 Elo | PHI 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| CIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 306.7 | Runs scored | 4.019th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 8.329th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −4.327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 3–4 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.