Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Martini singled to center, Thompson scored.4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Schwarber homered to right (360 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6De La Cruz doubled to right, Fraley scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Encarnacion-Strand doubled to left, India scored and Martini scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML CIN +150 / PHI -180
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -161
- CIN +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.2 – 4.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −1 | CIN: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +46 Elo | PHI 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 306.0 | Runs scored | 4.813th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 7.027th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −2.224th of 30 |
| 11th of 181–1 | Road vs home | 2–310th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–0 | 5–0 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–0 | 5–0 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 4–5 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.