Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8L. García Jr. reached on infield single to second, Winker scored, Lipscomb to second.7–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 8Lipscomb singled to right, Gallo scored, Winker to third.7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 5Abrams homered to center (415 feet).7–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Joe homered to left center (400 feet), Suwinski scored.7–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 2Winker singled to right, Gallo scored.5–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 2Reynolds singled to center, Taylor scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 1Davis hit sacrifice fly to left, Joe scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Tellez singled to center, Hayes scored and Reynolds scored, Joe to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Suwinski hit sacrifice fly to left, Cruz scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML PIT -125 / WSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 49.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.4 – 4.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +14 | PIT: Martin Perez: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +5 Elo | WSH 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 307.0 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 6.225th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+2.7 | Margin | −1.622nd of 30 |
| 4th of 185–1 | Road vs home | 1–17th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–1 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–1 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–1 | 4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 6–3 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.