Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Adams hit sacrifice fly to left, Thomas scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Sosa homered to center (412 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Meneses singled to center, Thomas scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2L. García Jr. singled to left, Vargas scored, Lipscomb to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Sosa singled to left, Merrifield scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML PHI -150 / WSH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.9%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.8 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −5 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +41 Elo | PHI 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.623rd of 30 |
| 21st of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.928th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −2.326th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 1–422nd of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–6 WSH in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.