Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Joey GalloBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marsh singled to center, Stott scored, Castellanos to third.5–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 3Gallo homered to right center (415 feet), Thomas scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Realmuto homered to left center (390 feet), Turner scored and Harper scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Bohm tripled to right, Realmuto scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML PHI -200 / WSH +165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.5%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -177
- WSH +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.6 – 3.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −8 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +60 Elo | PHI 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.922nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 6.027th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.4 | Margin | −2.126th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 1–319th of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 8–6 WSH in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.