San Francisco Giants at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting2-4
- Keaton WinnPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rays- Harold RamirezBatting3-4
- Jacob WaguespackPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Rosario doubled to right, Ramírez scored on error, Rosario safe at third on interference by third baseman Chapman.1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Lee scored on Waguespack wild pitch.1–1
- 3Lee scored on Waguespack wild pitch.1–1
- 2Díaz walked, Ramírez scored, Caballero to second, Rosario to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 40–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML SF -110 / TB -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.7 pts
- TB: Elo 60.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -100
- SF -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.3 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −5 | SF: Keaton Winn: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TB: Jacob Waguespack (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TB +76 Elo | TB 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.122nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.820th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 3–418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–8 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 1–2 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.