Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rengifo singled to left, Hicks scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 8Ramírez singled to right, Caballero scored.6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7Paredes homered to left (369 feet).5–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 35–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 4Drury scored on error, Schanuel safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Caballero.4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Caballero scored on error, Ramírez safe at first on fielding error by right fielder Moniak.4–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Caballero doubled to left, Siri scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 2Caballero singled to right, Siri scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Siri doubled to center, Mead scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML TB -120 / LAA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- TB: Elo 56.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −18 | TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +43 Elo | TB 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.813th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 5.426th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.618th of 30 |
| 16th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–7 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–3 LAA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.