Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Harold RamirezBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9McMahon homered to right center (417 feet), Cave scored, Rodgers scored and Jones scored.7–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–10
- 9Rortvedt scored on error, Siri safe at first on throwing error by third baseman McMahon.7–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 9Rortvedt singled to center, Arozarena scored and Paredes scored.6–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 14–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 9Rosario grounded out to shortstop, Ramírez scored, Paredes to second, Arozarena to third.4–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–6
- 9Ramírez singled to center, Díaz scored.3–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 8Bryant homered to left (422 feet), Jones scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 32–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Tovar homered to left center (420 feet), McMahon scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 6Díaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Jones scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML TB -170 / COL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- TB: Elo 60.8%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -154
- COL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 6.7 – 5.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −2 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +76 Elo | TB 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| TB | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.424th of 30 |
| 19th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 8.330th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −4.930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | — |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–0 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.