Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting2-4
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Díaz hit sacrifice fly to right, Siri scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 7Caballero reached on bunt single to third, Arozarena scored, Caballero safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Turner, Caballero thrown out at third.1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Biggio reached on infield single to shortstop, Varsho scored, Clement to second.1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Caballero hit sacrifice fly to center, I. Paredes scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Arozarena homered to right (366 feet).0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Rosario singled to left, Arozarena scored, I. Paredes to second.0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TOR +110 / TB -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- TB: Elo 55.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 4.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −1 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +38 Elo | TB 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 5th of 3046–35 | Road vs home | 53–281st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 7–8 TB in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.