Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-6, 2 RBI
- Hyun Jin RyuPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Rays- Josh LoweBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Lowe singled to left, H. Ramírez scored, Caminero to second.6–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 9Mead singled to left, Tapia scored, H. Ramírez to second.6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 8Merrifield walked, Guerrero Jr. scored, Chapman to second, Biggio to third.6–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 46–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 35–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 8Eden scored on Fairbanks wild pitch.5–5
- 8Eden scored on Fairbanks wild pitch.5–5
- 6Biggio doubled to right, Bichette scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Springer scored, Bichette to third.3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Springer doubled to center, Heineman scored and Kiermaier scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 4Bethancourt homered to left (351 feet).0–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1J. Lowe homered to center (415 feet), H. Ramírez scored and Caminero scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Díaz homered to left center (401 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | 0 | TOR: Hyun Jin Ryu: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +51 Elo | TB 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 3045–34 | Road vs home | 52–271st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 4–4 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.