Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Rays- Curtis MeadBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Springer singled to left, Espinal scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 9Varsho homered to right (388 feet).5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Mead homered to left (337 feet).4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Varsho singled to center, Biggio scored, Chapman to second, Kirk to third.4–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Chapman hit by pitch, Guerrero Jr. scored, Kirk to second, Biggio to third.3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Kirk walked, Bichette scored, Biggio to second, Guerrero Jr. to third.2–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 42–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Bichette singled to right, Springer scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1H. Ramírez singled to center, Arozarena scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Fair odds
- TB -120
- TOR +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +8 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +51 Elo | TB 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 5th of 3044–34 | Road vs home | 52–261st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 3–4 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.