Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Díaz doubled to right, Margot scored and Aranda scored.8–3
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging8–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 38–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 28–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 6Drury homered to left center (419 feet), Schanuel scored.8–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 3Paredes singled to left, Bethancourt scored, Díaz to second.6–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 2Drury homered to left (381 feet), Schanuel scored and Neto scored.6–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Neto doubled to left, Stefanic scored, Schanuel to third.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1O'Hoppe grounded into fielder's choice to third, Neto scored, Walsh out at second.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Walsh singled to right, Schanuel scored, Neto to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 66%
- Fair odds
- TB -141
- LAA +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 5.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +2 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +117 Elo | TB 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3033–43 | Road vs home | 51–251st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–3 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.