Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pinto singled to left, Walls scored and Basabe scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 8Basabe doubled to center, Paredes scored and B. Lowe scored, Walls to third.2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 8Neto homered to left (416 feet).2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4O'Hoppe homered to left (387 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Arozarena homered to left center (403 feet), Díaz scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 65%
- Fair odds
- TB -140
- LAA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 5.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −20 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 1.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +111 Elo | TB 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3033–42 | Road vs home | 50–251st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–2 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.