Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Margot singled to right, Díaz scored, J. Lowe to second, Paredes to third.4–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 9Paredes singled to left, Basabe scored, Díaz to second.4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Margot doubled to left, J. Lowe scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Adell homered to left (365 feet), Walsh scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 4Aranda grounded out to second, J. Lowe scored, Walls to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Fletcher singled to right, Walsh scored on error and Adell scored on fielding error by right fielder J. Lowe.2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Paredes doubled to left, Díaz scored, B. Lowe to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 65%
- Fair odds
- TB -139
- LAA +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 5.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +9 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +108 Elo | TB 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3034–43 | Road vs home | 51–261st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 2–3 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.