Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Brandon BeltBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Wes ParsonsPitching4.0 IP, 9 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Belt homered to right center (388 feet).12–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 212–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 112–7
- 7Bichette scored on error, Varsho safe at first on fielding error by center fielder Margot, Biggio safe at third on error.12–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–7
- 7Ramírez doubled to right, Basabe scored.12–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–6
- 6Heineman reached on infield single to third, Espinal scored, Varsho to second.11–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 111–5
- 6Varsho singled to right, Biggio scored, Espinal to third.11–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking11–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul11–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 111–5
- 6Biggio singled to right, Schneider scored.11–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play11–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul11–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 211–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking11–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 111–4
- 6Aranda doubled to right, Paredes scored.11–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 210–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking10–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 110–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–3
- 5Caminero homered to right center (379 feet).10–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 4Margot homered to left (358 feet).9–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 19–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.1 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −7 | TB: Jacob Lopez (no track record yet) · TOR: Wes Parsons (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TB +4 Elo | TB 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 3045–35 | Road vs home | 43–3713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 6–6 TOR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.