Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching7.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Guerrero Jr. homered to left (382 feet).9–5
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 38–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 28–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 18–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–5
- 9Bichette homered to left center (420 feet).8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 8Varsho tripled to center, Chapman scored.7–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 7Paredes homered to left center (427 feet), Mead scored.6–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Guerrero Jr. homered to center (427 feet).6–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 4Walls singled to right, J. Lowe scored.5–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 2Springer hits inside-the-park home run to center (410 feet), Merrifield scored and Kiermaier scored.5–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Merrifield singled to center, Kirk scored and Varsho scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Caminero singled to left, H. Ramírez scored, Paredes to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Paredes singled to right, Díaz scored, H. Ramírez to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Fair odds
- TB -117
- TOR +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −14 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +29 Elo | TB 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 5th of 3045–35 | Road vs home | 53–271st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 4–5 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.