Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Red Sox- Alex VerdugoBatting1-2
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Paredes homered to left (347 feet), J. Lowe scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Margot doubled to left, J. Lowe scored, Paredes to third.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4H. Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to right, Arozarena scored, J. Lowe to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2J. Lowe homered to center (397 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -107
- BOS +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.9 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +1 | TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +44 Elo | TB 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.921st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 6th of 3043–34 | Road vs home | 39–4119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 10–2 BOS in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.