Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Manuel MargotBatting4-4, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Enmanuel ValdezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Valdez doubled to left, Story scored, Dalbec to third.9–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–6
- 8Aranda singled to right, Tapia scored.9–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul8–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 29–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 8H. Ramírez grounded out to second, Margot scored, Tapia to third.8–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–6
- 7Turner singled to center, Duvall scored.7–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 6Abreu doubled to left, Story scored and Yoshida scored.7–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 5Valdez homered to right center (411 feet), Abreu scored and Dalbec scored.7–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 3Pinto homered to center (424 feet), Margot scored.7–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3Walls grounded out to second, Mead scored, Margot to third.5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Margot singled to left, J. Lowe scored, Mead to second.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Margot singled to center, Paredes scored, Mead to second, J. Lowe to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1J. Lowe singled to right, Caminero scored, Paredes to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Fair odds
- TB -108
- BOS +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.7 – 4.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −8 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +53 Elo | TB 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 7th of 3042–34 | Road vs home | 39–4019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 9–2 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.