Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erasmo RamirezPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bichette doubled to shortstop, Guerrero Jr. scored.4–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–10
- 6Biggio singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored and Bichette scored.4–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 6Caminero singled to center, H. Ramírez scored and Mead scored, Arozarena to second.4–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–8
- 6Díaz homered to left (427 feet), Pinto scored.2–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 5Chapman homered to center (415 feet).0–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 4Biggio singled to center, Bichette scored on fielding error by center fielder Margot and Biggio scored.0–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 4Belt homered to center (420 feet).0–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Kiermaier hit sacrifice fly to right, Biggio scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Kirk singled to center, Bichette scored and Guerrero Jr. scored, Biggio to third.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Kirk homered to right (341 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Fair odds
- TOR -103
- TB +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 3.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −3 | TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +6 Elo | TB 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.513th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 6th of 3044–34 | Road vs home | 42–3614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 5–5 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.